From June 2026 PTDA Market Forecast Report

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U.S Manufacturing Remains Resilient 

  • The ISM index showed manufacturing continued to grow early in Q2 after posting four consecutive months in expansionary territory since 2022.  New orders and order backlogs also remain strong, driven by demand for computer and electric products and transportation equipment.
  • Industrial production continued to expand in May, with manufacturing, extraction and utilities all posting gains. At the same time, the inventory-to-shipments ratio fell to its lowest level in four years as shipments outpaced inventory growth.
  • GDP growth forecast downward adjusted from pre-ward projection.

Canadian Industrial Activity Remains Weak, But Energy is Providing a Cushion

  • Canadian industrial production contracted again in Q1 as weakness in manufacturing and utilities outweighed gains in the extraction sector. However, new orders improved toward the end of the quarter suggesting industrial activity may be stabilizing. 
  • Looking ahead, trade policy uncertainty and the outcome of USMCA negotiations will remain important determinants of the industrial outlook.

 

PTDA Member Markets Dashboard
Market Phase of Business Cycle
U.S. Industrial Production index Expansion
Canada Industrial Production Accelerating decline
Mexico Industrial Production Peak 
U.S. Pulp, Paper & Paperboard Production Decelerating decline
U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments Expansion 
U.S. Iron & Steel Products Production Decelerating growth
U.S. Extraction (excluding oil & gas) Decelerating decline
North American Light Vehicle Production Trough 
U.S. Electric Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Production Index Expansion
U.S. Oil & Gas Extraction Expansion 
U.S. Material Handling Equipment New Orders Decline
U.S. Industrial Machinery Production Index Accelerating growth 
U.S. Food Production Index Expansion 


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